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NATIONAL SECURITY

Pakistan: A Partnership for Progress

Pakistan will certainly pose one of the greatest foreign policy challenges for the incoming Obama administration. A new report by the Center for American Progress states that Pakistan “lies at the nexus of one the world’s most complicated geopolitical regions — one plagued by poverty, nuclear proliferation, and global terrorism. With a growing population of more than 165 million people, Pakistan is a vital link between South and Central Asia and the broader Middle East.” With Osama bin Laden and other top Al Qaeda leaders believed to be hiding in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the significance of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship for American national security could not be clearer. “U.S. intelligence agencies have repeatedly issued warnings that some of these groups are using safe havens in Pakistan to facilitate and plan attacks around the world,”the report notes. But an effective Pakistan policy must recognize that the country’s problems are comprised of more than just rising Islamic militancy. The report, co-authored by Caroline Wadhams, Brian Katulis, Lawrence Korb, and Colin Cookman, identifies three key challenges to Pakistan’s stability — the threat of militant groups, an economic crisis, and weak governance — and proposes strategies for addressing them.



PURSUING AN ILLUSION OF STABILITY: The militant threat emanating from Pakistan is real and growing. The report notes that “a strengthening, multi-headed adaptive network of extremists comprised of the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and affiliated indigenous militant groups is escalating deadly attacks within Pakistan and Afghanistan.” Recently, “a rise in Taliban attacks along a vital supply route” into Afghanistan from Pakistan has threatened the U.S.-led NATO effort there. Writing for the Middle East Bulletin, Sen. Robert Casey (D-PA) emphasized that the U.S. needs to learn the right lessons from Iraq and apply them to what is a “fundamentally different situation” in Pakistan. “One key principle–and one reason for the decrease in violence in Iraq–is the recognition that the United States needs to have an integrated strategy that uses all components of power,” writes Casey. For decades, however, “U.S. policy has pursued short-term stability in Pakistan at all costs, utilizing a self-defeating strategy of almost exclusive support to Pakistan’s military establishment and individual leaders.” After 9/11, the Bush administration drew closer to the military regime of General Pervez Musharraf, turning a blind eye to his undemocratic rule in the hopes that Musharraf would act as a dependable ally in America’s newly declared “war on terror.” Now, “for the first time in almost a decade, the United States and the world have partners in a democratically elected government of Pakistan.” “As a result, the current government…has a greater potential for representing and mobilizing Pakistan’s population toward fighting militancy and strengthening its governmental institutions than the military dictatorship that preceded it.” The report stresses that “military operations alone will not defeat Pakistan’s militant groups.” Different groups will require different strategies, “including strengthening governance and rule of law, creating economic opportunities, and exploring political negotiations.”



AN ECONOMIC CRISIS: With much of the U.S. media focused on the terrorist threat emanating from Pakistan’s border areas, too little attention has been paid to an equally threatening development: Pakistan’s growing economic crisis. “Pakistan’s economy is in free-fall,” the report states. “Inflation is at 25 percent, causing dramatic food price spikes and hitting Pakistan’s poor the hardest. Pakistan’s government faces mounting fiscal and trade deficits, and Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $6.9 billion, enough to pay for only an estimated nine weeks of imports.” It appears that the United States and the international community are beginning to recognize the severity of the crisis. On Nov. 18, the Friends of Pakistan group, which includes the U.S., Saudi Arabia, China, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, the United Nations, the European Union and others, met for the second time in Abu Dhabi to discuss ways to assist Pakistan economically. Additionally, CAP’s report proposes “creating a comprehensive inter-agency development strategy that focuses on Pakistan’s education and vocational skills training, health care quality and access, the energy sector, and water shortages.” The report also proposes “an economic donors’ summit with key regional investors to facilitate increased trade between Pakistan, its neighbors and other key countries.”



WEAK GOVERNANCE: Ineffective governance is at the heart of the problems facing Pakistan. The country’s civilian government “remains weak following years of military rule, underinvestment in Pakistan’s governmental institutions, and dysfunctional political leadership. … A dangerous disconnect exists between the needs of the Pakistani people and the ability or inclination of their leaders to provide for them.” CAP’s report emphasizes the importance of utilizing all elements of U.S. power, including diplomacy and development to engage more deeply on these three sources of instability. It also advocates a coordinated, international response, arguing that the United States has not sufficiently leveraged the resources and influence of other key countries such as China and Saudi Arabia. The United States must “recognize the limitations of direct U.S. influence in Pakistan and continue moving toward a multilateral approach, with Pakistan as a full partner.” An inclusive and broad-based approach is essential for dealing with the challenges Pakistan faces. “Even if Osama bin Laden were captured tomorrow in Pakistan, challenges to its stability and the region’s would remain. Making this strategic shift may finally assist Pakistan in confronting its biggest challenges of insecurity, failed governance, and economic difficulties,” the report states.