Palin’s (Conservative) Problem?

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washingtonpost.com’s Politics Blog

Even as Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin prepares for Thursday night’s vice presidential debate against Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, an increasing number of Republicans and conservatives are expressing reservations about both her candidacy and the way in which she is being used (or not used) by John McCain‘s campaign.

The trouble began late last week with what was widely seen as a disastrous Palin interview with CBS News anchor Katie Couric in which the vice presidential nominee was barely intelligible on relatively basic questions of foreign policy. (Is it just us or has Couric been kicking butt in the last few weeks? It isn’t just us; the Post’s Howie Kurtz seems to agree.)

That “performance” was — luckily for the McCain campaign — largely drowned out by coverage of the ongoing fight on Capitol Hill over the bailout of the country’s financial institutions.

But, it did not go entirely unnoticed particularly by several prominent conservative opinion makers.

Kathleen Parker penned a column on Friday in which she asserted: “As we’ve seen and heard more from John McCain’s running mate, it is increasingly clear that Palin is a problem.”

And, Parker added — more cuttingly:

“If Palin were a man, we’d all be guffawing, just as we do every time Joe Biden tickles the back of his throat with his toes. But because she’s a woman — and the first ever on a Republican presidential ticket — we are reluctant to say what is painfully true.”

And then yesterday morning two more conservatives seemed to express doubts about the way in which Palin was being used on the campaign trail.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who many within the establishment of the GOP saw as the smartest choice as vice president, told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that: “Holding Sarah Palin to just three interviews and microscopically focusing on each interview I think has been a mistake, I think they’d be a lot wiser to let Sarah Palin be Sarah Palin. Let her talk to the media, let her talk to people.”

Bill Kristol, in his column for the New York Times echoed that sentiment. “McCain needs to liberate his running mate from the former Bush aides brought in to handle her — aides who seem to have succeeded in importing to the Palin campaign the trademark defensive crouch of the Bush White House,” wrote Kristol.

It’s hard to know — looking at the polls — whether these rising voices of discontent on the right will change how Republicans and conservatives view Palin.

Polling conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News last week suggests that Palin’s numbers remain consistently strong with both groups. (Thanks as always goes to Post polling analyst Jennifer “J-Bug” Agiesta for her help in culling the numbers.)

Among Republicans, Palin had an 87 percent favorable score and just a seven percent unfavorable score, roughly the same ratings she received in a Post/ABC poll conducted in early September.

Palin’s favorable rating among self identified conservatives stood at 84 percent in the latest Post poll while her unfavorables were at a paltry nine percent. Those numbers compare favorably to the early September Post poll when Palin’s fav/unfav score among conservatives stood at 77/12.

What’s clear from those numbers is that Palin has some margin for error before the McCain campaign needs to begin worrying about a revolt on its right flank.

But, the polling data does not mean that the recent unhappiness among conservative opinion-makers will have no effect on the race.

Among independents, Palin saw her favorable ratings drop from 60 percent in early September to just 48 percent last week while her unfavorable ratings rose from 26 percent to 36 percent.

These independent voters are likely to be influenced by the conventional wisdom of the chattering class. As those in the so-called “Gang of 500″ become more pessimistic about Palin, independent and undecided voters are more likely see her in a more negative light.

Talk to Palin advisers, however, and they insist that she is working to reclaim her public identity. “She wants people to see and hear more of the original Sarah Palin,” said one adviser to Palin who was granted anonymity to speak freely. “A renewed approach started [Monday] with a commanding performance wrapping up her commitment to Katie Couric and CBS.” (Palin was more forceful in her co-interview with McCain yesterday with Couric.)

Palin’s best chance to change this narrative in the campaign is to outperform expectations during Thursday night’s debate. She must appear competent in her knowledge of issues and willing to occasionally go off her script in order to change the cementing conventional wisdom. The Palin adviser, seeking to lower expectations for Thursday night predicted: “Palin is being Palin but she knows she’s got her work cut out for her with the 35-year debate society champ from Delaware.”

Regardless of the expectations game, if Palin can’t change the story line Thursday night, it is a MAJOR problem for McCain.

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One response to this post.

  1. Posted by jo ashby on September 30, 2008 at 11:26 am

    as a senior citizen and a woman, I feel strongly that Palin is not a good representation of women in the business of national nor international politics. she obviously is not knowledgeable about her own country’s history nor in poli-sci.
    My concern is simply that men in news media and in politics are aware that they have to tread lightly in their treatment of her inane remarks. That is a MAJOR error on the media’s part.
    Thank goodness for Saturday Night Live

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